O novo imposto seletivo sobre o tabaco: fundamentos constitucionais, impactos econômicos e desafios na redução do mercado ilegal

Abstract

This study aims to conduct a critical analysis of Book II of Complementary Law No. 214 of 2025 (“LC 214/25”), which establishes the Selective Tax (IS), provided for in Article 153, item VIII, of the Federal Constitution of 1988 (“CF/88”), as introduced by Constitutional Amendment No. 123 of 2023 (“EC 123/23”). LC 214/25 also institutes the Tax on Goods and Services (IBS) and the Social Contribution on Goods and Services (CBS), bringing significant changes to the Brazilian tax system. This research explores the constitutional principles underlying the creation of the Selective Tax, its effectiveness, and its socioeconomic impacts, with particular focus on the taxation of cigarettes (tobacco). Although the prevalence of smokers in Brazil has decreased in recent decades, according to data from the World Health Organization (WHO), tobacco remains responsible for more than 8 million deaths annually worldwide. Of these, over 7 million are attributed to direct tobacco consumption, while approximately 1.2 million are related to secondhand smoke exposure. The WHO further emphasizes that nearly 80% of the world's one billion smokers live in low- and middle-income countries, where the health and mortality burdens associated with smoking are even more severe (INCA, 2022). However, the increase in cigarette prices through differentiated taxation tends to widen the price gap between legally traded cigarettes and smuggled products, often leading consumers to opt for contraband alternatives, as these are not subject to high — or indeed, any — taxation. In this context, the present study investigates the possibility of establishing a differentiated tax burden on cigarettes as a tool to reduce consumption, while seeking to avoid an increase in smuggling rates. This approach presupposes the implementation of complementary public policies aimed at combating the illicit market as a necessary measure to ensure the effectiveness of the taxation strategy. This research will be developed through a qualitative methodology, with an exploratory and descriptive approach. The study will use bibliographic and documentary research methods, drawing on legislation, constitutional amendments, bills, and technical reports from institutions such as the National Cancer Institute (INCA), the Federal Revenue Service of Brazil, and international organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Furthermore, statistical data on tax collection, 7 cigarette consumption, and smuggling will be analyzed based on official reports, along with comparisons to international experiences