A relação entre taxa de câmbio, investimento direto estrangeiro e taxa de juros

Abstract

The exchange rate is a major key due to its myriad consequences it waves on the economy such as: effect on monetary policy, effects on economic growth, effects on the trade balance, among many others. Using a time series sample from January / December 2000/2013 and the variables exchange rate, interest rates and foreign direct investment, econometric tests were modeled trying to build relationships using vector autoregression model (VAR) and co-integrated vectors (VEC). The Central Bank of Brazil and its relation with the agents in the economic has high power to influence the behavior of the exchange rate. Therefore, it is not only a matter of import and export of goods and services. The formation of the exchange rate is much more complex than simple commercial transactions. Due to the high value of the interest rate in Brazil, it is used as a form of arbitration so that the agents have the maximum profit on this issue, which makes targeting the exchange rate price an even more complex process. The results show a positive relationship between the three variables, both in the short and long term. Although the exchange rate showed a low (but positive) effect on foreign direct investment. It is expected, since this type of variable has a greater impact in the long than in the short term. The interest rate has an inverse behavior on the exchange that is when one goes up (down) the other falls (rises). This can be explained due to the different functions that the interest rate has on the economy, not limited only to control the exchange rate